A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
